My final assessment of the May 2010 Elections
5/12/2010 12:39:00 PM
The Prediction:
I didn’t vote for the leading candidates Aquino and Binay but it does not necessarily mean that I don’t like them and actually, I expect these candidates to win based on my prediction. Here is simple explanation why those two candidates are leading. Based on my research and observation, three of the most popular voting trend are Aquino – Roxas, Estrada – Binay, and Aquno – Binay. More than 60% of the voting population voted for these tandems. Less than 60% of the voters voted for these tandems: Gordon – Bayani, Teodoro – Roxas, Villar – Legarda, and Teodoro – Binay. Less than 10 percent of the voters voted for the other tandems. Here are my rough estimates of the percentages of the tandems: (Note: This is just an estimate and not accurate)
Aquino and Roxas - 30%
Estrada and Binay – 26%
Aquino and Binay – 10%
Villar and Legarda – 15%
Teodoro and Roxas – 6%
Teodoro and Binay – 2%
Gordon and Bayani – 3%
Villanueva and Yasay – 2%
Other Tandems – 7%
If we will observe the tandem votes, it appears that the preference of Aquino and Binay tandem is the main turning point of the election and I think that it is self-explanatory. However, it is not yet sure win for Binay because the margin of votes is less than 1 million.
The Strategy:
- - - Presidential and VP race:
In the past surveys, Roxas was leading very high against other candidates that made him complacent and lessen his campaign. The LP focused more on Aquino in that time. It was too late for Roxas to recover his big lead because of Binay’s good strategy and political marketing. I think that if Roxas did better in his campaign, he shall maintain the big lead against Binay and the rest. It is just a matter of strategy.
The fall of Nacionalista tandem in votes is not surprising because their TV ads do not anymore appeal to the most of the voters. Villar even used his mother and some celebrities like Willie and Dolphy, which I believe, pulled him down. Those kinds of TV ads will not translate into votes. It is the same with Legarda; her TV ads are obviously insincere. Binay’s TV ads are more believable than hers. The lead of Estrada against Villar is not surprising. Many of the Nacionalista supporters shifted to Estrada. They have the same platforms but Estrada’s TV ads are more believable than Villar’s in the point of view of the ordinary people. In fact, the parents of the child who endorsed Villar in Tondo voted for Erap.
Teodoro’s positive campaign is impressive but not enough to gather massive votes. He has the qualifications and good platform but those are not enough. Two main reasons why Teodoro did not win are: (1) his link with PGMA and (2) unpopularity. I know that it appears that he is very popular among the students and faculties of high class institutions and those who are active in the internet. Most of the people in that class, including us, only talk and discussed among themselves/ourselves that gives us the illusion that Teodoro is very popular. We forgot that more than 50% of the Filipinos are not in this class and even don’t know who Teodoro is. All they know about Teodoro is his link to PGMA. Complicated platforms do not appeal to the ordinary people unlike Aquino’s “kung walang corrupt, walang mahirap” which is very clear.
The remaining candidates' TV ads especially Madrigal and Fernando’s can only be described by one word: FAIL. Their lost is self-explanatory.
--- In the Senatorial Race
In the senatorial race, the most important key of winning is image and name recall. Most senatorial candidates who are leading have good advertisements and their names are easy to recall. I'm pretty sure that those senators who are leading are not included on the top 6 list of those who voted them. Different voters has different top senators that's why, most of our preferred senators are not winning. If the voters have already chosen their top senators but they still lack some slots to fill the 12 slots, the voters will just vote those who they remember popular and credible particularly those old names we saw on the leading top 12.
In my case, my top senatorial candidates are Tamano, Hontiveros, Lacson and Bello. All of them did not enter the top 12. Hontiveros ranked 13 because his advertisement is good and she is quite popular but the top 12 (I'm not sure of Guingona) are more popular than Hontiveros. I also voted Palparan for the reason that really don't like Satur Ocampo. That's 5 all in all. The other 7 candidates who I voted entered the top 12. Those candidates belong to the class of candidates I mentioned in the previous paragraph. Another 5 candidates who are Drillon, Recto, Osmena, Enrille and Sotto are just my secondary choices which I believe to be competent enough to be on the Senate in spite of old names. Two slots are still unfilled. I have the option of not filling those but I decided to vote for Bong Revilla and Lapid just for an experiment. I just like to test if they will still win this election. Then, I was just surprised the Bong Revilla acquired the top spot and that proves my theory.
For the record: my 7 out of 12 senatorial candidates are currently on the Top 12. If Hontiveros luckily entered, it will be 8. :)
In my Political Science years in La Salle, the very basic thing that I learned - that in Politics, there is no good and bad... it’s all about strategy and marketing.
Final Message:
Yes, I did not vote for Aquino (I voted for Teodoro and Roxas) but as I said earlier, it does not necessarily mean that I don’t like him as president. The main criticism against him is not having any law legislated while others have good track records in making laws. But the presidency is not law-making and therefore, it is irrelevant. Aquino may appoint good advisers and cabinet members to supplement his lack of experience. I don’t like the attitude of many people saying that Filipinos are stupid for voting those kinds of candidates including Lapid, Revilla, Estrada and Sotto in the senate. Remember, Vox populi, vox dei. We are in a democracy. We have different opinions. Our opinions are equal with one another. We cannot say that our votes are more superior to the other votes just because we are students of law or studying in La Salle, Ateneo, UP and other prestigious universities. All we have to do is to accept and believe to those who won because the people have chosen them. The Constitution did not mention of any track record requirement in electing our officials. Let’s give chance to our newly (probably) elected president and be unattached to your extreme fanaticism on your own candidates. Let us move on and help the government.
